The Race to the College Football Playoff: Top Contenders and Dark Horses

Sep. 1, 2024
by Alison Whyte
College Football
Picture: Jacob Rice on Unsplash

With the anticipated 2024 College Football Playoff (CFP) upon us, the new format of 12 teams this season is elevating blood pressure. The expanded field now opens its doors not only to perennial powerhouses but also to some emerging, unexpected contenders..


This article will examine what the new playoff system looks like as well as the top contenders and dark horses for the 2024 national championship.


The 12-Team Playoff System

Just like with the 4-team format, a select committee will rank the teams from 1-25 beginning in November. However, under the old system, it was simply the top-4 ranked teams making it to the playoff regardless of whether they won their conference. There are new, distinct regulations associated with the revised system. First, a move that would have benefited Florida State last year is that the top five conference winners will automatically be invited to the CFP. The conference winners who rank the highest will automatically be seeded 1-4 and get a first-round bye. Additionally, one of the automatic berths will be given to the highest-ranked champion from the Group of Five conferences, giving schools like Boise State and Liberty a chance to win the national championship.


After that, the seven highest-ranked non-conference champions will receive invitations to the playoffs. The first round will be played at the home field of the teams seeded five through eight. The first-round winners will move into the quarterfinals, played on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. The quarterfinals and semifinals will be among the New Year’s Six bowl games with the national championship being played at a new location every season. This year’s championship will be held at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Jan. 20, 2025.



The Top Contenders for the 2024 CFP

Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State probably has one of the more exciting offenses in college football, averaging a remarkable 579 yards and 44.5 points per game last season. Most of that was to the credit of a very strong passing game, but they also rose to the occasion on defense, ranking No. 2 in all of college football in team defense. This year they are adding offensive coordinator and former UCLA and Oregon head coach Chip Kelly to the mix, who is known for his high-speed and electric offense. Kelly will work with transfer quarterback Will Howard who fits Ohio State’s vision of a strong dual-threat talent. The Buckeyes have a very difficult schedule, with an Oct. 12 trip to Oregon, a Nov. 2 trip to Penn State, and “The Game” against Michigan on Nov. 30.


Georgia Bulldogs

Despite not securing the national title last year, the Bulldogs enter this season with high expectations fueled by their formidable defense, which allowed just 15 points per game, ranking No. 5 nationally. Their strong running game consistently dominates the field, setting a vigorous pace in most matchups. With a fresh influx of top recruits strengthening their lineup, Georgia is well-positioned to vie for excellence and make a significant impact in the upcoming games, keeping fans hopeful for a standout season. Like Ohio State, Georgia faces a most difficult schedule which includes games against Clemson, Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, and Ole Miss, all teams ranked in the preseason AP Top 15.


Alabama Crimson Tide

With the departure of Nick Saban, Alabama enters a new chapter under head coach Kaleb DeBoer. Despite significant changes, including player recruits and transfers, Alabama remains a formidable force in college football, attracting top talent and maintaining a potent offensive strategy. Most of their season will ride on their quarterback, Jalen Milroe, who has the ability to beat teams with his arm and legs and is a Heisman Trophy contender in 2024. Under DeBoer, the team aims to continue its legacy of scoring dominance and strong defense. This period of transition is pivotal, as Alabama seeks to adapt its coaching strategies while preserving its tradition of excellence and playoff contention.


Oregon Ducks

The Ducks are ranked in the top 5 entering the season and have the kind of talented roster to win it all. The biggest move head coach Dan Lanning made in the offseason was bringing in quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who many consider the best quarterback in college football and a Heisman Trophy favorite. Gabriel, who is coming off a stellar season at Oklahoma, will have a big weapon in Tez Johnson, who is coming off a season where he caught 86 passes for 1,182 yards and 10 touchdowns. With a defense also projected to be among the best in the Big Ten, Oregon is extremely balanced. However, moving to the Big Ten means a tougher schedule, including games against Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Washington. A rematch with Ohio State could be in store in the Big Ten Championship, ultimately deciding who wins the conference and gets that first-round bye.


Texas Longhorns

Texas got a taste of the College Football Playoff a year ago, coming up just short in the national semifinals against Washington. The Longhorns return quarterback Quinn Ewers, who like Gabriel and Beck, figures to be a top Heisman contender. Despite losing wide receivers Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell to the NFL, Texas replenished well, adding Alabama transfer Isaiah Bond along with Matthew Golden and Silas Bolden. The Longhorns also figure to be dominant on the ground behind a stout offensive line and five-star running back C.J. Baxter. Despite moving to the SEC, the Longhorns got a break with their schedule, playing just three ranked teams; Georgia, Oklahoma, and Texas A&M. Compare that to another SEC team like Florida who must play eight teams in the Top 25.


Top 5 Dark Horses

Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State is the one to stand and substantially benefit from the new format. Usually, Penn State grounds behind Big Ten monsters Ohio State and Michigan and sees their playoff chances end early. The expansion of the CFP to 12 teams combined with a surprisingly soft schedule makes Penn State a legitimate contender to not only make the postseason tournament but go on a deep run. Last year, they possessed good metrics both on offense and defense; that adds up to a potent reputation within the conference-a point that might turn some heads for this year's playoff. Additionally, the return of quarterback Drew Allar and running back Nicholas Singleton makes the Penn State offense one to watch.


Missouri Tigers

With a schedule much lighter in terms of opponents than in previous seasons, Missouri is primed for a breakout year. An improved defense and experienced offense should help them build upon the momentum they gathered last season which saw them beat Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. Not only do they bring back signal-caller Brady Cook, but they boast one of the best, if not the best, wide receivers in the country in Luther Burden III. His athleticism and electric playmaking skills remind many of former Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith.


Ole Miss Rebels

Under Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss reconstructed their team, more so on the defense. Among the additions, Kiffen went out and got Princely Umanmielen, a dominant edge rusher, and Chris Paul Jr., who ranked as one of the best linebacker transfers in the country. Offensively, Ole Miss figures to be dominant. Jaxson Dart is coming off a season where he threw for 3,3364 yards and 23 touchdowns and has been given some talented weapons through the transfer portal, including wide receiver Antwane Wells and offensive lineman Walter Nolen, a first-round NFL Draft talent. Ole Miss doesn’t have an overly difficult schedule outside of a home game against Georgia on Nov. 9.


Utah Utes

Time and again, the Utah Utes have proved that they can hold a candle to the heavyweights whenever the season of college football playoffs commences. That is one sure thing that has been retained through most of their season reviews for discussions across various platforms, including sports podcasts. With key returning players and some strategic plays, the natural development of the potential disruption Utah provides within the playoff picture will be a major storyline as the season takes shape. Carson Rising’s return is significant for Utah and gives them an excellent chance to win the Big 12 and earn a top 4 seed.


Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame returns six starters on defense from 2023, a unit that ranked eighth in college football under Al Golden. It’s the quality of starters returning, though, that has people believing in Notre Dame. Of that group, Benjamin Morrison and Xavier Watts stand out, two potential secondary stars who could be first-round NFL Draft selections. Offensively, Notre Dame added quarterback Riley Leonard and went out and got some wide receiver weapons, including former Clemson star Beaux Collins. While the offensive line could be a work in progress, a soft schedule following the Texas A&M opener should help Notre Dame finish inside the top 12.


Deep Sleepers

Nebraska Cornhuskers

The Cornhuskers aim to improve their season under Coach Matt Rhule, attempting to build on past performances with a mix of seasoned players and fresh talent. The schedule is not exactly easy with tough opponents like Ohio State and USC. Given those circumstances, Nebraska may find making the CFP a challenge, but look for them to at least be ranked inside the top 20 come the end of the season.


Kansas Jayhawks

It’s unusual to mention Kansas along with the titans of college football but the traditional basketball school has a lot of things going for it on the gridiron. For starters, they return a ton of talent from a 9-4 season, including quarterback Jalon Daniels. If Daniels can stay healthy and running back Devin Neal continues to produce big games on the ground, the Jayhawks can easily reach double-digit wins. Kansas only plays one ranked team all year, and given the vulnerability of the Big 12, it’s not a reach to think they can win it and end up as a top 4 seed in the CFP.


Conclusion

The 2024 College Football Playoff of the year could easily say it is one of the most crowded ever, from powerhouses that have been known to the less thought-of teams. As these teams go head-to-head, with every game, it opens up a new door toward the playoff landscape. Whether it be the seasoned contender or the dark horse, excitement in college football can surely reach another height this season. Follow more news about college football in anticipation of unexpected twists and captivating games all season long with Albatrossports.com.