Oregon Ducks
Playoff Percentage: 99%
Make: Clinched Championship game.
Miss: With a loss in the Big 10 Championship, Oregon will still most likely be a 5 seed heading into the playoffs.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Playoff Percentage: 99%
Make: Ohio State to get into the Big 10 Championship would have to beat Michigan. That's it. However, Michigan can shock the Buckeyes and knock them out of contention of playing Oregon for the title. Ohio State beating Oregon in the Big 10 will secure them either a 1 or 2 seed in the playoffs.
Miss: Ohio State really cannot miss the college football playoffs. Even with a loss to Michigan, the Buckeyes could still find themselves within a ranking of 8-12 for the final week of rankings. If
Ohio State can make the B10 Championship, beat Oregon, then the Buckeyes will find themselves likely in the 1-3 seed range for the playoffs.
Indiana Hoosiers
Playoff Percentage: 95%
Make: The Hoosiers have a very easy final game ahead of them against Purdue. That's good news. The bad news is that Indiana likely will not make the Big 10 Championship because of their recent loss to Ohio State. They can with losses by Ohio State and Penn State. Their playoff hopes are still alive even if they cannot snag a first round bye. Currently, Indiana sits at 10. That's high enough for them to make the playoffs due to recent losses from Alabama and Ole Miss. The chances of both Ohio State and Penn State losing are extremely slim, but if that does happen, we have an Oregon vs. Indiana Big 10 Championship.
Miss: Indiana will not make the playoffs if they lose to Purdue. Sitting at 10, their road gets very thin assuming teams behind them move up. However, this likely will not happen as Purdue sits at an 0-8 conference record and a 1-10 overall record. Yikes.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Playoff Percentage: 99%
Make: For Penn State to make the Big 10 Championship, they will need a win over Maryland and an Ohio State loss to Michigan. This is doable. Michigan always plays Ohio State tough, and Maryland has one win in the conference. With all of that, Penn State can play Oregon in the Championship game. To make the playoffs, they just really need to make sure they win.
Miss: With a loss, Penn State can make the playoffs at an estimated 80%. That's still good news for Penn.
Georgia Bulldogs
Playoff Percentage: 97%
Make: Clinched Championship game. To make the playoffs, Georgia needs to beat rival Georgia Tech. If they lose to Georgia Tech and win the SEC Championship against Texas/TexasA&M, they are in the playoffs.
Miss: With that being said, Georgia can still miss the playoffs. With a loss to Georgia Tech and a loss in the SEC Championship, we will find the Bulldogs missing the college football playoffs entirely. This would be a big shake up. Georgia leads this series 71-41-5...not that tough for the Yellow Jackets as they are currently 7-4 overall.
Texas Longhorns
Playoff Percentage: 99%
Make: If Texas beats Texas A&M, they are in the SEC Championship against Georgia. If they lose to Texas A&M, they are still in the playoffs at 85%. Texas, even if you lose, you are still in the playoffs.
Miss: Texas will have a very hard time missing the playoffs. I do not see it happening. In fact, they have a better shot at making the playoffs than Georgia.
Texas A&M Aggies
Playoff Percentage: 25%
Make: If the Aggies beat Texas for their final game, they make the SEC Championship. If they can rally to beat Georgia, they will find themselves with a first round bye. It won't be easy, but it is possible.
Miss: If Texas A&M loses to Texas, they will miss the playoffs guaranteed. Playing Texas on Saturday is their most important game in a very long time.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Playoff Percentage: 20%
Make: The Iron Bowl—an American classic. Alabama is a two-score favorite over the Tigers. Losing to Oklahoma really put a snag in their playoff plans. Alabama cannot make the SEC Championship nor can they secure a top 4 seed. Being seeded any higher than 11 is going to be nearly impossible for the Crimson Tide. Beating Auburn is a must, and relying on other top teams to fall is also needed. However, Alabama is currently ranked 13. Teams above with tough games are Clemson (@ South Carolina), Boise State (vs. Oregon State), and Tennessee (@ Vanderbilt). Alabama will likely need a loss from Clemson, Tennessee, and Boise State to make the playoffs. Possible, but very slim.
Miss: A loss to Auburn and it's all over for Alabama. With a win, the chances of all aformentioned teams losing are slim.
Tennessee Volunteers
Playoff Percentage: 75%
Make: If Tennessee beats local rival Vanderbilt, they are in the playoffs. Now, Vanderbilt has been impressive with a historic upset against Alabama. This won't be an easy game for Tennessee, or it could be a blowout. Tennessee's offense is definitely capable of both. The chances of Vanderbilt winning are slim, so Tennessee can make the playoffs.
Miss: With a loss to Vanderbilt, Tennessee will miss the playoffs and push a team like Clemson or Alabama in.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Playoff Percentage: 10%
Make: South Carolina will need to beat Clemson to even be considered for a playoff spot at 11 or 12 seed. At 16 in the AP 25, a win against Clemson will move them up to at least 12—likely needing a loss from an above team to make the playoffs.
Miss: With a loss to Clemson, there is 0% chance the Gamecocks can play in the CFP this season.
Ole Miss Rebels
Playoff Percentage: >1%
Make: A win against Mississippi State and losses from virtually everyone ranked above them in the SEC is needed. Really, there is zero chance that happens.
Miss: With a loss to to Mississippi State, they are officially eliminated.
SMU Mustangs
Playoff Percentage: 60%
Make: Clinched Championship game. By beating Virginia, SMU is in the ACC title game. To make the playoffs, SMU will need to win the ACC Championship. Here's why:
SMU plays California on Saturday, with a win there, SMU plays whomever wins that final ACC spot. If that is Miami, Clemson, or someone else, SMU won't have the easiest time or guaranteed win. With a win in the ACC Championship, SMU secures a first round bye.
Miss: With a loss to California and a win in the ACC Championship, SMU has a 90% chance of making the playoffs. With a win to California and a loss in the ACC Championship, the Mustangs only have a 40% chance to make the CFP. With a loss to California and a loss in the Championship, SMU has less than a 5% chance to make the playoffs. That is why they must sustain their power from all season and win out.
Miami Hurricanes
Playoff Percentage: 75%
Make: If Miami makes the ACC Championship and beats SMU, they are in the playoffs and secure a first round bye. To make the ACC Championship, Miami will need to beat Syracuse. Even that Miami is behind Clemson in the standings, all Miami has to do is beat Syracuse to beat Clemson out. An SMU vs. Miami ACC Championship will likely elinate the loser.
Miss: If the Hurricanes make the ACC Championship and lose, their playoff chances diminish to at least 70%. If they lose to Syracuse, they have a 35% chance to make the playoffs. Chances are high for them to make the playoffs, but there are scenarios where it won't happen.
Clemson Tigers
Playoff Percentage: 55%
Make: Clemson needs to beat South Carolina to make the playoffs. They need a Miami loss to be in the ACC Championship against SMU. If they cannot beat the Gamecocks, the season is still not over for Tiger fans. With a Miami loss to Syracuse, the Tigers will play in the ACC Championship against SMU. If they can beat SMU (a likely outcome), then they have a 99% chance of making the playoffs and securing a first round bye or the lsat conference champion automatic berth. South Carolina is a vulnerable SEC rival and playing SMU with Clemson's high powered offense isn't an impossible feat. There is still a 20% chance that Clemson makes the playoffs even with a Miami victory and a South Carolina win.
Miss: Losing to South Carolina will likely wrap up the season for the Tigers unless Miami loses to Syracuse. Losing to SMU in an ACC Championship will be game over.
*Any of these four teams can play in the Big 12 Championship. However, if Tulane/Army win out, it could push any Big 12 champion from even making the playoffs due to tiebreakers and or CFP rankings.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Playoff Percentage: 60%
Make: A Big 12 program making the playoffs is not a guaranteed path anymore. With Boise State and Tulane climbing the rankings each week, a Big 12 champion could find themselves on the outside looking in. With that being said, Arizona State now holds the highest chance of securing an automatic position if they win the conference. If Arizona State wins the Big 12, they are in the playoffs at an 80% chance—likely a 12 seed if the ACC, SEC, Big 10, and AAC rank higher. *Currently Arizona State ranks ahead of AAC's Tulane.
Miss: Losing to Arizona and losing in the Big 12 Championship...if they can make it there. If they lose, Iowa State and BYU will make the Championship.
BYU Cougars
Playoff Percentage: 40%
Make: Just like Arizona State, BYU's path is complicated. If BYU wins against Houston and wins the Big 12, they are in the playoffs if Tulane or Boise State is ranked behind them—assuming Tulane or Boise State are the 6th ranked highest conference champions.
Miss: Losing to Houston will eliminate the Cougars. Winning against Houston, but losing in the Big 12 (if they make it), will push them out of playoff contention.
Iowa State Cyclones
Playoff Percentage: 30%
Make: To make the playoffs, Iowa State will need to win the Big 12 and beat Kansas State on Saturday. Kansas State is currently 49% to win this game.
Miss: Losing to Kansas State will eliminate Iowa State.
Colorado Buffaloes
Playoff Percentage: 5%
Make: Colorado will need to win against Oklahoma State and win the Big 12 to make the playoffs.
Miss: However, the Buffaloes are currently ranked behind Tulane, Boise State, and Big 12 rivals. This path is only possible if Arizona State, Boise State, and Tulane all lose. They will also need Texas Tech to beat West Virginia because of tiebreakers.
Boise State Broncos
Playoff Percentage: 95%
Make: Boise State is ranked 11 currently and sitting at a first round bye due to Big 12 losses. If they can beat Oregon State on Saturday and win the Mountain West Championship, they have a first round bye. Even if they lose to Oregon State, the Broncos can still make the playoffs with a 60% chance by winning the Mountain West since they are ranked higher than Arizona State and Tulane.
Miss: Losing to Oregon State won't exactly eliminate them, but losing in the Mountain West Championship to UNLV or Colorado State will certainly do so.
UNLV Rebels
Playoff Percentage: 5%
Make: If the Rebels can beat Boise State in the Championship, they are not exactly in the playoffs since they are ranked lower than Tulane and Big 12 programs. However, the committee may be more lenient since Boise State has been so dominant. Of course, none of this is possible if they lose to Nevada.
Miss: Losing to Nevada is a surefire way to kiss your season goodbye. Losing the Mountain West is also a good way.
Tulane Green Wave
Playoff Percentage: 35%
Make: Tulane is a very tough team, they will need to win against Memphis and beat Army in the AAC Championship to even be considered. Any loss will eliminate them from the 12-team field. Even if this all happens, Tulane is ranked lower than Arizona State and Boise State. Boise State will need to lose at least 1 game before Tulane can leap frog them into that last automatic berth.
Miss: Losing at all will remove Tulane from contention.
Army Black Knights
Playoff Percentage: 15%
Make: Army has a lower shot than Tulane, but both scenarios are the exact same for this program. However, winning out will only give Army 1 loss for the season, likely catapulting them up the rankings quite a bit—possibly above a Big 12 school or Boise State if they lose out.
Miss: Any loss will elminate Army from contention.
