Chicago Bears:
In arguably the toughest division in the NFC, the Bears surprised many by winning the division in Ben Johnson’s debut as a head coach.
Reasons for optimism:
The Bears have the highest-upside QB in the division, with many viewing Caleb Williams as a generational talent. Ben Johnson looks like a top-tier head coach, and Colston Loveland could be a top-3 TE in the NFL this year. The run game looked much better, and Luther Burden III could be poised to make a major leap in Year 2.
Reasons for pessimism:
I’m in the minority that is more worried than optimistic about Caleb Williams. He makes insane plays that leave everyone in awe, but it’s the inconsistency on routine plays that raises red flags for me. People are going to hate this comparison, but we saw Anthony Richardson look otherworldly with some of his throws—and look at him now. Caleb will have to show significant improvement on routine plays for me to feel like he can be an elite QB in the NFL. Also, the Bears' defense needs significant improvement—they can’t rely on forcing turnovers to keep them from losing every other game.
Draft:
The Bears will draft a defender with the 25th pick of the NFL Draft. DE is a major position of need, so Zion Young or Keldric Faulk look to be prime options.
Projected Record: 9-8
Detroit Lions:
The Lions were a pretty big disappointment last year. With a top-5 offense, they scored without much issue. Jahmyr Gibbs took a big step forward, with David Montgomery taking a lesser role. The defense repeatedly let them down and put a lot of pressure on Jared Goff.
Reasons for optimism:
Gibbs is my dark horse MVP for this year. He is probably the most explosive offensive player in the game right now. If the defense can just be middle-of-the-pack, he could lead this team to the playoffs and possibly become the first RB to win MVP since AP did in 2012.
Reasons for pessimism:
Like the Bears, this team needs the defense to step up. Aidan Hutchinson will have to be Myles Garrett-esque to help make this team a true contender.
Draft:
A lot of mocks have the Lions taking an OT here, but I don’t see it. I like safety Dillon Thieneman here to help lock down the secondary.
Projected Record: 10-7
Green Bay Packers:
After starting 5-1-1, the Packers cooled off and finished as a Wild Card team. Losing Micah Parsons to injury lowered their ceiling, but I foresee a bounce-back year.
Reasons for optimism:
This was the most balanced team in the division. They have no glaring weaknesses. If Jordan Love can be more consistent and Parsons returns to full form, this team is a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Reasons for pessimism:
Matthew Golden did not impress in his rookie year, and the Packers have moved on from two wide receivers so far this offseason. Can he take a step forward in Year 2? Time will tell.
Draft:
The Packers traded away their first-round pick in the Micah Parsons trade, so they don’t pick until the second round. I’d imagine they’re targeting a DB early in the draft.
Projected Record: 11-6
Minnesota Vikings:
J.J. McCarthy peaked in week 1 and the team struggled to finish just above .500.
Reasons for optimism:
Going 9-8 with some of the worst QB play in the league is actually impressive. The addition of Kyler Murray raises this team’s floor and could add a few wins. With no major losses, this team could not only make the playoffs but win a round or two.
Reasons for pessimism:
Kyler Murray’s career is on the line. If he can’t make it work with arguably the most talented WR in the NFL and a QB-friendly head coach, he might cement himself as a borderline career backup.
Draft:
The Vikings lost a team legend in Harrison Smith, so I’d imagine safety is a priority with the 18th pick in the first round. If the Lions pass on Dillon Thieneman, I see him or Emmanuel McNail-Warren going here.
Projected Record: 11-6