Houston Texans:
With a 12-5 record last year, the Texans looked like a dark horse contender. Their elite defense gave up the 2nd fewest points per game (17.4). All the Texans needed was a solid game manager at QB. C.J. Stroud was not that and had way too many critical turnovers for even one of the best defenses to overcome.
Reasons for optimism:
Besides their elite defense, the Texans have hope their offense can turn it around. Tank Dell will be back this year, and they traded for David Montgomery. If their offense can be top 10 and C.J. can significantly reduce the turnovers, this team isn’t a dark horse contender anymore. It is a legit Super Bowl contender.
Reasons for pessimism:
After Stroud’s rookie season, the ceiling felt like the moon. We’re now two years removed from that special season, and Stroud hasn’t had the same spark. For now, I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt as a young QB who didn’t have one of his top weapons all last year. Year 4 needs to be closer to Year 1 than Year 3 for Stroud to get a major contract extension next off-season.
Draft:
The most glaring need for the Texans is o-line, so the easy answer here is an offensive tackle. With them picking so late, they’ll take the best OT available, which will likely be Caleb Lomu or Blake Miller.
Projected Record: 13-4
Indianapolis Colts:
The Colts started off 8-2 and looked like a lock for the playoffs. They didn’t just beat bad teams either during their run, with two wins against playoff teams (Broncos & Chargers). Unfortunately, the Cinderella run came to an end, and they lost their next seven games. Losing their QB played a role in the collapse, but the downward spiral began before Daniel Jones’ injury.
Reasons for optimism:
Looking at the division, I’m struggling to be optimistic. Jonathan Taylor will have to be even better than last year, and Alec Pierce will have to show he is a true #1 receiver. If those things can happen, maybe this team can sneak into a Wild Card spot.
Reasons for pessimism:
The Texans and Jaguars look like they’ll be really good this year. Plus, Jones might not even be healthy to start the season. On top of all that, the Colts moved on from a really good wide receiver in Michael Pittman this off-season. I don’t see a Cinderella story happening for the Colts this year.
Draft:
Midseason, they traded two 1st-rounders for Sauce Gardner, so they will not be picking until the middle of the 2nd round this year. Pass rush is a major need for this team, so an edge rusher makes sense here.
Projected Record: 7-10
Jacksonville Jaguars:
The Jaguars won the division last year, and Trevor Lawrence looked like a top 10 QB in this league. Their offense and defense were both top 10 last year in points for (27.9) and points against (19.8). It’d be hard to envision this team missing the playoffs this year.
Reasons for optimism:
They won 13 games despite Travis Hunter getting hurt and Brian Thomas Jr. not performing at the level most expected him to this past season. Parker Washington stepped up and looked like he could be a very good #2 WR. Their defense looks to be one of the best in the league this year.
Reasons for pessimism:
The Jags let Etienne walk, and there’s no guarantee that Bhayshul Tuten will be able to handle a full starting RB workload. As mentioned before, Brian Thomas Jr. looked just out of it most of the season last year. Their opponents for 2026 are brutal, with both AFC Championship teams (Broncos and Patriots) on their schedule. I’m not sure Lawrence will be able to keep up the very good QB play, but perhaps he can prove me wrong.
Draft:
Like the Colts, the Jaguars don’t have a 1st-round draft pick this year. Looking at their roster, they are lacking middle linebacker depth. I’d be surprised if they passed on one with their 2nd-round pick.
Projected Record: 11-6
Tennessee Titans:
This team is competing with the Jets for having the least amount of talent on its roster. Going 3-14 and putting up an abysmal 166.1 passing yards a game, there isn’t much to highlight.
Reasons for optimism:
Cam Ward performed about as well as expected given the circumstances. I think he has a chance to be a really good QB. It will just probably be a few years before we can see his full potential. Also, Jeffrey Simmons is a beast defensive tackle, and I hope this team trades him for multiple draft picks to really help build around Cam.
Reasons for pessimism:
Again, this roster is not good. I mean, a sponge has fewer holes than this team. I don’t see this team being any good this year.
Draft:
With the 4th pick of the NFL draft, the Tennessee Titans select Jeremiyah Love, RB from Notre Dame. At least, that’s what most mock drafts have. I disagree. The Titans should trade down and get a top 15 pick for this year, a 1st-round pick next year, and a 3rd- or 4th-round pick. Top 5 picks are valuable, and the Titans should trade it for everything it’s worth.
Projected Record: 4-13